Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Feel that Liberal momentum

A day after he took his seat, it would appear that Liberals are already experiencing what it’s like to have Bob Rae in your caucus.

But their worst showing in a national poll in over a year isn’t all Bob’s fault. Dion’s job approval rating now rests at a subterranean 11 percent – a rate even George W. Bush wouldn't covet.

At 26 percent, Liberals are at an all time low in support – lower than the 28 percent that earned John Turner 40 seats in 1980.

Liberals might be starting to regret their strategy of feigning non-confidence and talking tough about Harper while at the exact same time they help him put $14 billion in corporate tax cuts ahead of better transit, quality child care, and environmental laws that are tough on big polluters.

The NDP is the only opposition party to have more MPs today than they elected in 2006 -- proving that Canadians recognize who the real Harper fighters are.


Scott Tribe said...

I figured you'd jump on this with all your NDP partisanship showing towards bashing the Liberals rather then the Cons.

So, to counter it, a caveat:

This is an online poll... and I put little faith in them, and nor should anyone else. This same polling outfit had the Cons up by 8 last month when SES and Decima were showing dead heats.

When SES and/or Decima show similar results, then Liberals need to get worried... but basing your post on one poll, and one that is online, is a tad jumping the gun.

Blogging Horse said...

Hear that Toronto Star? Liberal bloggers say you are reporting on garbage.

And as for who gets "bashed": Good blogging isn't just repeating NDP attacks on Harper, it should go after what's interesting. And Liberals polling at 26% after flaming out in their western Canada seats sure is interesting.

Malcolm+ said...

The Liberal capacity for lying is really quite striking.

Scott boldly tosses out the claim that "this is an online poll."

Now, it is true that this is a poll conducted online.

But that's not what Scott means.

What he wants you to believe is that this is an online poll like the daily Globe and Mail question is an online poll.

In other words, dear reader, Scott wants you to believe that this isn't a poll at all. He wants you to think that this is a no control, self-selecting, answer as many times as you want online survey with no scientific legitimacy.

That is because Scott is a Liberal - and therefore Scott is incapable of being honest.

Fifty years ago, when polling was still a relatively young game, George Gallup did his polling door to door. Really. His workers went up and knocked on your door and sat in your living room and asked you the questions.

Then, one day, a rival polling company had a bright idea. "Let's use the phone!"

Of course, using the phone had it's problems. For example, not everybody had a phone. But then, not everybody had a door you could easily walk up to, so door to door polling had it's issues as well.

Back 50 years ago when telephone polling was new, there was doubtless some other Scott - a bitter and twisted partisan who didn't like the poll results - who was trying to trick people into believing that a poll conducted over the phone wasn't valid.

"This is an online poll," yesterday Scott said. "I put little faith in them, nor should anyone else."

Yesterday Scott had better grammar than today Scott. (Better education probably.) But he was just as devious and dishonest. He tried to make people believe that the telephone poll wasn't really a poll at all. He tried to convince people that it was just like those new-fangled radio call in shows, where the "sample" was self-selecting and where a few cranks could create the false impression of momentum.

But the poll conducted by telephone worked just fine - and now, polling by telephone is the norm. It is as accurate as the door to door poll - within the inevitable variable of the margin of error.

As more and more people decline to participate telephone polling - or even refuse to answer the phone at all for an unknown number - watch for web-based polling methods to become the norm. And they'll work just fine and be just as accurate - within the inevitable variable of the margin of error.

Then, fifty years from now, a new polling technique will come out. Then, future Scott, unhappy with the results that show his party in a bad light, will lie to people, declaring "Me not faith put this poll way. You not too should." (Tomorrow Scott will have even worse grammar, I suspect.)