Saturday, April 26, 2008

Conservatives tumble, NDP breaks 20 percent support

Jack Layton and the NDP are starting to see dividends from their strategy of taking on Harper over issues that impact ordinary people's lives like high gas prices and cell phone charges, and consistently being the country’s number one Harper fighter.

Today’s Toronto Star contains two examples.

The first is an Angus Reid poll commissioned by the Star which shows Conservative support tumbling three points in the last month, while NDP support has soared to the historic level of 20 percent – matching the 1988 election result which saw the party net 43 seats under Ed Broadbent.

Some of the regional breaks are also remarkable, including a strong showing of 19 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and in Manitoba and Saskatchewan where Layton leads with an incredible 46 percent of the vote. Even factoring the margin of error for the small prairie sample, the NDP still leads the Conservatives in the heart of the country.

But because polls are just polls, the other piece of good news for New Democrats is this story showing that Layton's pragmatic and principled opposition is being seen as the real force to beat Harper’s agenda -- resulting in tangible benefits in terms of increased NDP memberships, fundraising and momentum.

Political scientist Paul Nesbitt-Larking said Liberal decisions to abstain on high-profile issues has given the NDP room to present themselves "as the true opposition."

14 comments:

James Curran said...

An online poll? Oh boy. They're reliable.

Stephen said...

James Curran is confused.

This isn't the sort of online poll newspapers post on their websites asking whether you've had enough of winter, or think you're paying too much for gas.

The methodology is very different.

James Curran said...

I see. Wake me up for the next Nanos poll please.

janfromthebruce said...

Sweet - who indeed will stand up against Harper? Good news - James has sour grapes envy.

James Curran said...

Envious of The Liberals 10 point lead over the Dippers? Ya Id be happy with 20 points too if i was a dipper I guess.

Sean S. said...

its a new day when Liberals are happy with 30% support....

Blogging Horse said...

Indeed.

30 percent support is exactly what Liberals got in the last election, so there's some attraction to knowing you can't fall much further.

Though 30 is also a hair's width from being positively Turner-esque.

James Curran said...

LIke I said...wake me up when the next Nanos poll is released.

Malcolm+ said...

Lying seems to be deeply ingrained in Liberals.

James tries his own lie, implying that the Angus Reid methodology is the same as the online surveys one sees on website - self-selecting sample, multiple responses, all the usual manipulations.

That is like comparing Nik Nanos's polls to a radio open line show.

Fact is, in the most recent elections in Quebec and Manitoba, it was this polling methodology which proved the most accurate.

Of course, when polling by phone was first introduced, there were those who complained it couldn't possibly be as accurate as door-step interviews.

Mind you, like then, those complaining about new polling methodologies today are usually those who feel threatened by the results.

James Curran said...

Now, I know I'm a Catholic and all, but is it common practice for Anglican Priests to be so vile toward others Malcolm?

Malcolm+ said...

Is it common practice for Liberals to distort the truth so wilfully?

The Liberal blogosphere have been engaged in a year-long slanderfest against Angus Reid because they don't like his numbers.

My usual offer to such indignation stands. If you stop lying, I'll stop calling you a liar.

James Curran said...

Because you are a priest Malcolm, it doesn't give you the right to play God. Because someone's opinion is, invariably, different then yours, it doesn't make them a Liar. If that was the case, I guess I could call you a liar.

1. Try confession. It eases stress.

2. Anger management courses may be good as well.

3. Also, learning to read Exactly what the text of a post is might be helpful. Did the NDP vote with or against the Liberals? Yes or no? It is a simple question.

Malcolm+ said...

The government fell - and the votes of the NDP MPs were irrelevant to the fall of the government.

If one believes the Liberal narrative (always dubious) one comes away with an entirely different impression - one in complete contradiction of the facts.

Call it what you will.

Likewise, the slanderous misrepresentation of the Angus Reid instrument is designed to create an impression which is completely false.

Call that what you will as well.

James Curran said...

And here you go Malcolm. As I predicted. 14% for the Dippers.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3918