Readers of the Toronto Star will be surprised to wake this Saturday morning to read that - for the first time in recent history - the New Democrats are now in second place running right behind the Conservatives in this election.
The Angus Reid poll commissioned by the Star found not only that Jack Layton's party is picking up support across the country, but also, as the polling firm's Mario Canseco says, "as the campaign progresses, Layton is really gaining and seen as a much more interesting leader while Dion is struggling badly."
If this trend holds, the election will change fundamentally. Harper will increase his attacks on Layton - even more than what we saw in BC this week. And individual Liberals will continue to distance themselves from Dion, as MPs shift to run essentailly 90 by-elections just to keep the seats they have.
For his part, Layton should continue to make his pitch that is clearly working: Canadians who want real change, and not more of Harper's agenda, should vote for a strong leader and a strong team of New Democrats to deliver that change.
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Next week's debates may change the directions or angles of the the party trend lines.
Jack Layton needs to perform well in both the French and English debates. In the French debate, he needs to attack Harper by appealing to Bloc supporters. In the English debate, he needs to attack Harper by appealing to Liberal and soft Conservative and Green supporters. Layton needs to show passion when he debates. I sometimes have my television on when I am in a different room. Layton has a lot of good things to say. He just needs to show more feeling when he speaks. I want to feel the "Wow" factor! Also, Layton needs show that Harper is not a new strong leader by informing Canadians that Harper does not trust them. If Harper cannot trust his cabinet, MPs, and Canadians; why should Canadians trust Harper? If Layton can do this, the trend lines for the NDP will change direction in his party's favour.
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