Thursday, September 11, 2008

Angus Reid: NDP surges into statistical tie behind Harper

Polls are polls and a saavy politician knows not to talk about polls.

But you have to think Jack Layton and NDP candidates must be sorely tempted to talk about this one, which shows for the first time since Dion became leader, the NDP statistically tied for second place right behind Harper.

Fortunately, journalists have no inhibitions about musing on the latest polls, like Mike Duffy did on his show yesterday: "[The] Angus Reid national poll shows the Liberals and the NDP basically tied. Are we seeing a battle shaping up here between Stephane Dion, the wounded leader of the Liberals who has been under attack from even within his own party and the NDP, as to who is going to be the alternative government?"

16 comments:

James Curran said...

Frickin' hilarious. Two "online polls". Give your head a shake. These online Angus Polls are purely partisan, as you have to be a forum member to participate. I'm a member. How do you think I voted? Turns out, this poll had lots of Conservative and Dipper supporters. Point being, poll the people of Canada randomly over the phone. Amateurs.

janfromthebruce said...

Gotta love the front page of the online edition of the Globe and Mail today.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Great picture of Layton with child.

Greg said...

All will become clear tonight. Nanos knows all.

northwestern_lad said...

James... if you don't care for that one, how about the Strategic Council poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080910.welxnpoll11/BNStory/politics/home

The NDP has the support of 30 per cent of voters in those key ridings, according to a poll conducted Sept. 7 to 9 for The Globe and Mail and CTV News. That's up from 17 per cent in a poll conducted Sept. 4 to 6.

RP. said...

EKOS seems to reinforce the trend:

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/canadians-in-a-holding-pattern/

Jimmie said...

Is Dion becoming the Next Kim Campbell?

James Curran said...

Our first set of CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking indicates the Conservatives have entered the campaign with a five point lead over the Liberals among decided voters (CP 37%, Lib 32%, NDP 13%, BQ 9% GP 9%). Notably, the Conservatives are showing strength in central Canada where they are statistically tied with the Liberals in Ontario (Lib 41%, CP 39%) and close on the heels of the Bloc in Quebec (BQ 35%, CP 32%).

Malcolm+ said...

James, I hope that Angus Reid sues your lying Liberal ass for slander and libel.

The poll is NOT an "online poll" like those found on the Toronto Star website any more than a Nanos or Ekos or Strategic Council poll is an open line phone in show.

In fact, Angus Reid's online methodology turned out to be the most accurate predictor of the most recent Quebec and Manitoba elections.

But then, when they first started using telephones instead of door to door surveys, I'm sure some lying crank like you slandered those companies as well.

James Curran said...

Very Holy of you Reverend Malcolm. you must preside over the same type of church as Sarah Pailin.

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=303

"In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,007 adults, 38 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the Oct. 14 federal election, up two points since late August and above the party's share of the vote in the 2006 electoral process (36.3%)."

Did you notice the words "online" and "survey"

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=304

"In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,007 adults, 62 per cent of Canadians disagree (32% strongly) with a statement saying that the Liberals have done a good job in opposition"

Also notice the words in this survey: "online" and "survey"

You either have stocks in Angus Reid or a relative that works there. This is the second time you've flipped out. I took part in both of these online surveys. Guess what my anwers were?

Like I said, if you're a member of their "Forum", chances are you'll participate in these surveys. That is why I've asked all my liberal friends to join and even the playing field.

Malcolm+ said...

You are attempting to mislead people into believing that the Angus Reid poll is no more scientifically valid than the average "internet poll" on the TorStar website.

That, Jimbo, is a lie.

That makes you a liar.

I'm sorry you're a liar. I really wish you weren't. But I'll make you the same offer I make to any rightwinger who spreads shite.

Stop lying, and I'll stop calling you a liar.

Of course, your inoherent flipout is caused by the fact that your party is in meltdown.

James Curran said...

That's very neo-con-like of you dear Malcolm.no point to make so you resort to defaming individuals and blatant outright lies. I've now explained twice how Angus Reid online polls are conducted. Neither of which have I compared to the one second star polls. You're obviously mentally challenged and can't understand the differnce, so I won't explain it a third time.

You're a blowhard, radical religious freak with nothing better to do than defame and slander people instead of intellectually debating. So talk amongst yourself.

James Curran said...

Better yet, go argue with Kinsella for a while:

"LOSERS: Those of us seeking a clear sense of public opinion. At the end of the day, I will always depend on Ipsos and Nanos (that rhymes!) for a better picture of public opinion. The other guys rely overmuch on Internet-based pools that aren’t sufficiently random, contain typical voters, etc. If Ipsos and Nanos are right, and I believe they are, there is a race still to be won."

red and proud said...

Anyone who knows anything about polling does not put much stock in Angus Reid internet polls.

Of more concern to the NDP should be the fact that they are WAY BEHIND the other parties in nominating candidates: As of today --Sept 14-- 111 of 308 ridings had not yet nominated candidates, according to the NDP's own web site.

Pretty hard to form a government when more than a third of the ridings don't even have anyone to carry your party banner.

Malcolm+ said...

More Liberal lies - as usual.

Liberals don't like to admit any credibility to Angus Reid polls because they tend to show the Liberals slightly lower than other polls. But Angus Reid was the most accurate final poll before the last Quebec election and the last Manitoba election.

You are lying about their methodology. That makes you the liar, Jimbo. Not me.

And BTW, since it was your party propping up the Conservatives for the last two years, you really have no room to call anybody else a neo-con.

Tell me, if a Liberal accidentally told the truth, would his head explode or would his tongue catch fire?

Steve said...

Maybe we should keep an open mind when it comes to methodology. It appears the only poll conducted entirely online was most accurate:

http://www.thestar.com/article/518363

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=349&page=1

Fred said...

Steve, don't be silly. Everybody knows that online polls aren't accurate. Just because this one was the most accurate doesn't make it accurate. It was done online. With a forum. So it's not accurate. Even though it was accurate. It's still not accurate.