The Harper Conservatives want to win Guelph. They need to win Guelph. Winning Guelph, the strategy goes, opens up mid-size Ontario cities in the GTA shadows that they need to win in order to keep their minority in the face of loses they know are coming in other parts of the country.
Problem is, they aren’t going to win Guelph and their polling has to show that. With less than 20 days to go, the race is all but decided between Tom King for the NDP and the Liberals who first won the seat back in the days of Consumers Distributing.
So, aside from having Gloria Kovach stage a dramatic rescue of school children from a burning building, while arresting the arsonist, while also paying to personally off-set the carbon emissions of the fire (lets call that Plan B), the Conservatives need to create the impression that Guelph is a fight between them and the Liberals, not Tom King and the Liberals.
Enter, this poll from Allan Bruinooge and KlrVu Research which showed up today appearing to show exactly what the Harper team wants you to think.
If you haven’t heard of KlrVu Research, you are excused. If you have, it’s because you:
A) recall the only other poll KlrVu Research has EVER done. You know, this one from last month which was widely disemboweled by the blogosphere - which contradicted polls from actual firms - to say that the majority of Canadians opposed the Order of Canada for Henry Morgentaller; or
B) you are Conservative MP Rod Bruinooge, and therefore the brother of Allan Bruinooge proprietor of KlrVu Research.
So, the Tory Spin Machine has all their best guns aimed at defeating Tom King and this is what they come up with?
Which is the more shocking consideration, that the Conservatives would stoop to foisting a bogus poll on local and national media to make it look as though the NDP isn’t a factor in Guelph, or that they would do it in such an amateurish way as to be exposed with a simple Google search?
And they run the country. Shudder.
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it may interest you to know that the president of the guelph conservative, andrew prescott party blogs under the pseudonym "christian conservative".
for whatever reason, he does not mention this position at his blog.
You paint a very plausible scenario, and while I'm not familiar enough with the horse race to comment on the positioning the possible Conservative strategy with the poll is certainly feasible, if not likely. And it should be exposed, as you've done.
I wouldn't get on too much of a moral horse though, if you'll forgive the pun, for all parties engage in this kind of political gamesmanship. I know this first hand.
In 04 I was a volunteer on a Liberal campaign in a Conservative-held riding. We were running third, but fighting hard and clawing our way into contention. The friday before e-day, the NDP candidate (running second, but barely) released a poll from a little known polling firm that claimed it was a two-horse race between the NDP and the Conservatives. Therefore, they said, the anti-Con vote needed to rally behind the NDP. Sound familiar at all?
The media ran the press release verbatim, it was too late for us to respond before e-day (its a riding of small towns), our vote shrunk as the anti-Con vote rallied to the NDP, fulfilling the prophecy. And Nathan Cullen is now in his second term.
As I said, all parties engage in this sort of gamesmanship. No one's hands are clean.
Ya know, unless you're partisan this doesn't matter.
As a matter of fact you probably don't even have to be partisan for it not to matter.
People have come to expect dishonesty out of all of the parties in their respective quests to sit in the big chair.
So supporting the idea that the race is between the Liberals and Conservatives, we have a robopoll from a small, partisan pollster.
Supporting the idea that the race is between the Liberals and NDP, we have... what, exactly?
PS- If the Tories were going to rig a poll, why would they have it put them 10 points behind?
PS- If the Tories were going to rig a poll, why would they have it put them 10 points behind?
By releasing a partisan poll with the CPC in 2nd, Tories are trying to motivate their dispirited volunteers and also cause the Liberals to get lazy and the other parties to become less engaged.
Fortunately, everyone, including the local media saw right through this rouse. Back to Plan B, Tories.
Well, the NDP are within the margin of error with the Greens in the Ontario three week rolling sample done by Harris Decima... 15% to 13%. With Greens concentrating in the riding to help door knock, while not to the extent in London, can move votes.
The Greens certainly have narrowed the range between them and the NDP considerably. I wouldn't be surprised to see them as the third party in more regions of the country as they have already become in the vast majority of Alberta.
With the NDP polls trailing the results in the last election by considerable amounts both nationally and in Ontario, I'm not sure why Jack acts with such bravado!
If polls were the only thing that mattered, the junior Senator from Illinois would be enjoying daquiris in St. Kitts right now instead of running for President.
Sure, the Greens have been polling better, but Elizabeth May just can't bring it home. She couldn't even win her own by-election.
People vote for the NDP because they can win seats and get results.
By releasing a partisan poll with the CPC in 2nd, Tories are trying to motivate their dispirited volunteers and also cause the Liberals to get lazy and the other parties to become less engaged.
That's silly; it would be just as likely to de-motivate their supporters. ("We're so far behind; what's the use?") If they were going to rig the results, they'd want it to show them neck-and-neck with the Liberals.
This poll could very well be meaningless (many if not most polls are), but claiming that the Tories hand-picked the results for their benefit is waaaay out there.
PS- I'm still interested in what evidence you might have that "the race is all but decided" between the Libs and NDP.
"As I said, all parties engage in this sort of gamesmanship. No one's hands are clean."
No. This is a special kind of bogus activity that the Tories have established as their unique territory at the bottom of the barrel:
1) Create utterly fake "polling firm" and lie about your credentials
2) Hook up a demon-dialler (on loan from your brother's party?) and ask a non-representative sample a leading question.
3) Publish the results without even a contact name and have the phone number go to another of your 'legitimate' businesses.
4) Profit??
Seriously, though - this 'firm' is bogus and has already gotten themselves in trouble with the MRIA - it's a wonder whether they'll continue to let these jerks drag their organization's name down in the mud with them.
At the very least, the other parties would make use of independent poll data, not the drivel of another candidate's brother. Gah.
screw this leftism contraversy thuis poll was know by kovacks campaign in august the disregarded it because the company was shit your just making a story so the guelpleftist can chat only here could the green party bee ajaed off the NDP. WATACH AND SEE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY AND @ND IN GUELP go hug a tree you freaks what the hell have the liberals done for us in 12 yeras. WE had the chance with RICHARD STEWART but were too stupid do we live with what we get nothing. keep voting red that lawyer who has xmas dinner cattered is just like you and me and yes i know this as i know his son and i worked for kovack
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