With 1,279 days until polls close in the next federal election, the BaDH Decision Desk can already predict that the Ignatieff Liberals will not form a majority or minority government.
The analytical and empirical basis for how such an early prediction can be made is right here.
It will be recalled that the Liberals had their worst showing in history in the 2008 election in part because of a leader who failed to connect with ordinary people, but more so because of an ill-defined plan to raise taxes that met with hostility at doorsteps across the land. A plan concocted by none other than Michael Ignatieff.
So it’s absolutely baffling to see the seeds of a repeat performance being sewn by the exact same man who saddled Liberals with the unpopular carbon tax from under which they are still trying to escape.
Right now, Harper and the gang are desperate to do two things: first: define Ignatieff as haughty intellectual with zero practical government experience and second: talk about anything other than how the economy is worsening under their watch.
Staggeringly, Ignatieff’s incomprehensible slip-up hands them a way to do both. Wait for the Conservatives' gigantic war chest to start being funneled into an unending stream of ads about how the Ignatieff Liberals will raise personal taxes – perhaps with a carbon tax, perhaps with an increase in the GST hike, or perhaps with a 2000% income tax increase! (only Iggy knows for sure!?)
That history appears to be repeating itself will give Liberal supporters more cause for considering dropping Professor Ignatieff’s first year Canadian politics course and going to a more reliable opposition with Jack Layton.